Industry Trends 2024: Scale, Security, Sustainability
In 2023, VIAVI Solutions proudly celebrated our 100-year journey as a global leader in communications test and measurement, and optical technologies. As we embark on our 101st year and beyond, here is a window into the trends we are following in our target markets.
Scale: 5G
In 2023, The State of 5G from VIAVI observed a tipping point in deployment of the technology around the world, with commercial 5G networks available in 2,497 cities across 92 countries. By the end of the year, India alone claimed 10,000 5G cities following a launch in 2022. While the industry is already discussing 6G, it’s clear that 5G will continue to be the most scalable network technology for years to come. In 2024 and beyond, service providers will augment their networks with 5G Standalone to enable true programmability and differentiated services. The standardization by 3GPP of Reduced Capability (RedCap) devices and Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTN) will extend the power of 5G through the Internet of Things (IoT) and satellite connectivity, respectively. Additionally, Open RAN will begin meaningful global deployment.
Scale: Open RAN
Within the mobile network ecosystem, Open RAN has been actively in development since 2018. The O-RAN ALLIANCE today includes 32 operator members and 278 vendor and academic contributors. In 2023, Open RAN was the subject of much debate about its viability, but two major developments in the second half of the year put concerns to rest. First, the O-RAN ALLIANCE resolved a lingering disagreement over the effectiveness of the open fronthaul specification to handle massive MIMO, paving the way for O-RAN to move decisively into field deployment. And sure enough, December saw three transformative announcements: AT&T-Ericsson, 1&1-Rakuten Symphony and Deutsche Telekom-Nokia. Of note, these announcements highlighted numerous other vendors including Corning, Dell, Fujitsu and Intel, while Rakuten Symphony cited “80 vendor partners from around the world,” demonstrating a driving principle of open networking.
Scale: Cloud
While cloud services have been scaling for decades, growth shows no signs of abating, with Gartner forecasting that end-user spending on public cloud services will grow over 20% from 2023 to 2024. A significant driver of reliance on the cloud is the recent availability of AI to end users. The public cloud also represents a vast attack surface requiring continuous vigilance. In telecommunications networks, cloud adoption complicates the management of infrastructure, and inventory discovery and management has become a critical imperative.
Scale: AI
Without a doubt the most seismic technology event of 2023 was the emergence of AI on the consumer level; put another way, AI had its iPhone moment. While Generative AI reverberated throughout the telecommunications industry as well, other forms of AI and ML have managed and optimized networks for years. VIAVI CTO Sameh Yamany testified before the U.S. Congress on how Telco AI is enhancing network security, resiliency and efficiency. As demand for AI is unleashed, the impact on supporting industries will be profound: high-performance computing and cloud providers are already reconfiguring their service architectures, and semiconductor and system vendors are racing to bring more powerful products to market.
Satellite
In 2019, there were approximately 2,500 satellites orbiting the Earth. In quick succession, companies ranging from Amazon Kuiper and Starlink in the U.S. to Guowang in China announced plans to launch tens of thousands of low earth orbit (LEO) satellites to deliver universal broadband coverage. With this infrastructure reaching critical mass, device manufacturers have already begun including satellite connectivity in mass-market offerings. 3GPP Release 17 specifications formally introduced support and guidelines for Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTN), with subsequent releases expected to continue to refine the standards. The exponential growth in satellite constellations is also driving innovations in intra-constellation communication, with Free Space Optics (FSO) playing a key role.
6G
Even before 5G reached its tipping point in 2023, the wireless communications ecosystem was promoting research and development in its successor standard. It bears repeating that work on any major generation of communication technology begins six to eight years before it is commercially deployable, as part of a lifespan of 20 years or more – starting with academic research, and continuing through standards development, network equipment development and validation, field trials, implementation at scale, and management and optimization of live networks.
There are several current streams of research, including new waveforms, Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces (RIS) and integrated sensing and communications. In parallel with traditional industry bodies such as 3GPP, the Innovative Optical and Wireless Network (IOWN) Global Forum is advancing its vision of a new communications and network infrastructure including an all-photonics network and digital twin computing.
Semiconductor
The shockwaves of Generative AI suddenly being accessible by billions of users are reverberating down to the most fundamental levels of technology, including semiconductors. The large amounts of data, computing power and storage required for AI transactions have become the norm rather than the exception. NVIDIA saw its graphics processing units (GPUs) – which had heretofore been used for specialized applications such as gaming – become standard in AI systems, thanks to parallel processing, scalability for supercomputing, and broad and deep software stack. Competitors are racing to catch up with their own platforms. Separately, the higher throughput, lower latency, TeraHertz/TeraBit/microsecond connectivity, AI/ML and energy requirements already envisioned in 6G point to a re-architecting of the network starting at the semiconductor level.
Security
The attack surface observed by VIAVI is vast: from cybersecurity threats, to vulnerabilities in open and cloud networks, to spoofing and jamming of mission-critical positioning, navigation and timing. Another front will open once quantum computers become sufficiently large to break public-key cryptography used throughout information technology. Governments, standards bodies and commercial entities have been preparing for this era with research on post-quantum cryptography algorithms and quantum key distribution systems that are starting to be available now, as well as longer term methodologies.
Sensing: Automotive
The autonomous driving market is still developing, but research shows enough interest to generate as much as $400 billion in revenue by 2035 in both consumer and commercial vehicles. One of the critical hurdles for autonomous driving is accurate sensing. Manufacturers have been exploring several alternative machine vision systems based on different sensors including cameras, radar and LiDAR (light detection and ranging). Of these, solid state LiDAR is emerging as the frontrunner because of its range, spatial resolution and cost effectiveness due to lack of spinning mechanical parts.
Sustainability
The recent conclusion of COP 28 in Dubai serves as a stark reminder of the sustainability imperatives facing every industry and region. In telecommunications, the ever increasing reliance on mobile networks for communications has a corresponding price in terms of energy consumption, with one study showing that data transfer in mobile networks consumes more energy than in fixed networks. While the network characteristics of 6G would require even more power than 5G on an adjusted basis, the telecommunications industry is stepping up with proactive measures such as AI-powered energy-saving applications in Open RAN. As the field of photonics advances, vendors not only enable sustainable solutions for customers (as measured by lower power budgets), but also adopt sustainability initiatives in their own manufacturing processes.
In 2024 and beyond, the telecommunications and optical industries stand at the forefront of transformative changes. The rapid evolution of technologies like 5G and the increasing demand for high-speed data transmission have reshaped the landscape, fostering innovation and competition. The integration of optical solutions has become pivotal in meeting the escalating connectivity needs of our digitally-driven world. Looking ahead, the convergence of telecommunications and optics will continue to redefine the way we communicate, collaborate and consume information. As we embrace the unfolding trends, it is imperative for industry players to remain agile, adaptive and committed to pushing the boundaries of what’s possible in the pursuit of a more connected and technologically advanced future.
